November 19, 2025
by Grant McClintock
Since opening in September 2023, Chicago’s temporary casino has consistently underperformed revenue expectations. Presented as a potential windfall to support Chicago’s underfunded police and fire pensions, every month since its opening, the City has reported revenues far short of initial projections. These initial projections were revised significantly downward in each subsequent year’s budget, and revenues frequently fail to meet even the reduced expectations. Despite this low performance to date, and with the permanent casino site still under construction, the City’s FY2026 proposed budget assumes a 170% increase in casino revenue over FY2025.
The casino revenue was touted to the public as a key, essential funding source for Chicago’s gravely underfunded police and firefighter pension funds, whose combined 2026 annual payments totaled nearly $1.6 billion in FY2026. The Civic Federation has consistently raised concerns about the reliance on this revenue source for pensions due to its unpredictability. This volatility is illustrated in the chart below. The City of Chicago’s share of revenue from the temporary casino increased steadily after its opening in September 2023, but 2025 revenues have not shown significant growth from 2024 as projected.
Actual revenues have consistently underperformed projections on an annual basis when compared to both the initial comparisons released in 2023 and the revised projections included in the City’s annual budget documents. As shown in the chart below, the City has drastically reduced the casino’s projected revenue from initial estimates released in 2023. Even with these reduced projections, however, the temporary casino still fell short of meeting revised estimates. The chart shows that the City only received about a quarter of the projected revenue in 2023 and about half of the projected revenue in 2024. Revenues for 2025 do not include the months of November and December, but revenue performance to date is largely on track with the previous year, with $13 million of the anticipated $16.5 million in revenues collected through October. If these patterns continue through the end of the year, the City is set to receive about half of the revenue projected for 2025. The City’s FY2026 budget proposal anticipates $44.6 million in casino revenues, revised downward from $107.3 million initially projected in 2023. The FY2026 revenue projection represents a 170% increase from the prior year based on the assumption that the yet-to-be-completed permanent casino will be fully operational.
This chronic underperformance necessitates a reconsideration of whether the FY2026 budget assumption is realistic and whether future revenues will be capable of making the presumed contributions to the City’s pension funds. The projected FY2026 casino tax revenue of $44.6 million only represents 0.03% of the combined police and firefighter pension contributions the City is required to make in the coming year (not including the adjusted actuarial ramp from the pension sweetener passed by the State last spring, which takes effect in FY2027). With the permanent casino not scheduled for completion until late 2026, it is highly unlikely that revenues will reach the budgeted projection level assumed by the City. If revenues fail to materialize, the City will need to find alternative revenue sources to make the required contribution to its police and fire pensions. The Civic Federation urges the City Council to factor these concerning patterns and identify back-up revenue options as it works towards a final FY2026 budget.